Burleigh Dodds Science Publishing: How will climate change affect agriculture in years to come?

The impact of climate change can be felt worldwide – from continent to continent.

For example, UK growers have highlighted concerns about the 2022 heatwave in which the country experienced its highest ever temperature on record (40.3 degrees Celsius), threatening yields of crops such as cereals, brassicas and top fruit.

And it’s not just the UK that’s heating up. According to research, the average surface temperature across the contiguous U.S. states has risen at an average rate of 0.1 degrees Celsius per decade since the start of the 20th century (Basso, Millar and Price, 2023).

Although for some the damage may already be done, many see great promise in the use of modelling techniques to predict the future impact of climate change on agriculture, as well as the efficacy of climate change mitigation measures.

Modelling climate change impacts on agricultural systems

A new book published by Burleigh Dodds Science Publishing promises to be the ‘go-to’ reference on this topic.

The book features contributions from an array of international experts in the field of climate change modelling and has been edited by Professor Claas Nendel who was the Principal Developer of the MONICA model. This simulates biophysical processes in agroecosystems to allow assessment of regional impacts of climate change.

“This book examines issues from the small scale, via regional to global, and explores current approaches and the gaps that need to be filled to make projections more robust,” says Professor Tim Benton, Director of the Environment and Society Programme, Chatham House, UK.

“It allows readers to judge the extent to which we really understand how climate change will affect agriculture in years to come, and what we need to do better in order to do so,” he concludes.

Modelling climate change impacts on agricultural systems provides a global perspective on the impact of climate change on different agricultural systems, including both crop and livestock production, in Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia and the Americas.

One of many concerns surrounding climate change is its impact on delivering key ecosystem services that underpin agriculture and deliver wider benefits such as improved air, soil and water quality.

“Invertebrates and micro-organisms living in the soil maintain its fertility and structure, but are vulnerable to disruption or damage to the soil,” states Dr Charlotte Weil, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, Switzerland.

“However, rising temperatures increase the rate of soil organic matter decomposition, causing losses in soil fertility that may be further compounded by climate-induced changes to soil invertebrate and microbial composition – both of which could compromise soil ecosystem services,” she adds.

“Climate change continues to wreak havoc on agricultural production worldwide,” says Francis Dodds, Editorial Director at Burleigh Dodds Science Publishing.

“It was therefore essential that our new book review the latest research on how modelling can better capture the impact of climate change and assess how effective potential mitigation measures might be in both adapting to and reducing its effects,” he adds.

Find out more about the book here.